In the future, due to restrictions on access and integration, the concentration of domestic industries is expected to increase further
A Supply situation
Soda is known as the mother of the chemical industry and is widely used. It is an important basic chemical raw material. After 2000, the world's soda industry, mainly China, developed rapidly, with an average annual production capacity growth rate of 2.45 %. From 2004 to 2010, production capacity grew rapidly. Production capacity once decreased in 2015, and overall production capacity growth declined after 2015.
The soda industry in the world originated in Belgium in 1865. Solvay discovered the key technology for the industrial production of soda, namely the Solvay Soda, and established Solvay in 1865 to become the first soda plant. After 1870, Solvay established factories in Britain, Germany, Russia, and the United States. From the middle of the 20th century to the early 21st century, with the discovery and exploitation of local natural alkali, the United States became the world's major producer and exporter of soda. After 2000, China's soda production capacity has gradually increased, and the proportion in the world has become larger and larger. In 2000, the global soda production capacity was 44.72 million tons, the output was 34.21 million tons, and the operating rate was 76 %. North America is the main soda supply site, accounting for 32 % of the global soda production capacity, and China's production capacity accounts for 24 % of the world's total. It is 8.34 million tons. Since 2003, China's soda production capacity has continued to increase. By the end of 2018, China's soda production capacity has reached 29.59 million tons, and global production capacity has reached 70.33 million tons, accounting for 48 % of the world's total. Total capacity in China, North America and western Europe accounts for 80 % of global capacity.
The production process of soda is mainly ammonia alkali method, natural alkali method and alkaline method. The global ammonia method device is widely distributed, with 47 % of production capacity; Natural alkaline plants account for 24 % of production capacity, mainly distributed in the United States, Turkey and China; The capacity of the alkaline method device accounts for 23 %, almost all of which are distributed in China.
Chinese soda production can be self-sufficient, and the export volume accounts for 5 % of the national output. The export destination is mainly Southeast Asian countries, and the import dependence is about 1 %. In 2018, China's soda production reached 26.11 million tons, and the operating rate was 85.9 %. After the elimination of production capacity in 2015 and restrictions on policy access, the production rate of soda industry was raised to a high level.
The top ten soda production companies in the world are Salvi Group(7.5 million tons), Genesis Soda(4.4 million tons), Tangshan Sanyou(3.4 million tons), Shandong Haihua(3 million tons), Sinar Resources(2.8 million tons), Zhongyan Group(2.63 million tons), Tata Chemical North America( 2.5 million tons), Kazan soda company(2.5 million tons), Henan Jinshan Chemical(2 million tons), Central Chemicals Company(1.9 million tons). Solvay Group's soda production capacity is distributed all over the world. Genesis and Sinar Resources and Tata Chemical are natural alkali companies in the United States. Tangshan Sanyou, Shandong Haihua and Zhongyan Group are the top three soda producers in China. The CR4 in the global soda industry is 0.25, the CR4 in China is 0.35, and the CR4 in the United States is 0.9. The global soda industry is relatively fragmented. The soda industry in China is a low-concentration oligopoly, and the soda industry in the United States is a high-concentration oligopoly.
B Requirements
In recent years, global soda demand has also made great progress in following the rapid development of production. Globally, glass is the most important downstream of soda, accounting for 52 % of soda demand; Next is soap and detergent, which accounts for 13 % of the soda demand; Inorganic chemicals account for 12 % of soda demand, and the first three account for 77 % of soda demand. Regionally, China, Western Europe, North America and Southeast Asia are the main consumers of soda, accounting for 79 % of global consumption. Nationally, China, the United States, Turkey and India are major soda producers, and the United States and Turkey are major soda exporters.
In terms of consumption, China is consistent with the world. Glass, daily glass, and photovoltaic glass are also the main consumption areas, followed by detergents and inorganic salts. The main demand of Chinese soda is in South China, North China and East China respectively, and it is the main producer of glass.
North America accounts for 20 % of global capacity, but demand accounts for only 11 %, and about half of its output is for export.
C Industry characteristics
The characteristics of the soda industry are as follows:
Resource dependent low-threshold basic industries
Among the raw materials of soda, coal, natural gas, raw salt, and limestone are all natural resources, and there is a resource dependence. The United States is rich in natural alkali resources, has a good quality of soda, and has a high market share in soda exports. The production methods of soda are natural alkali method, alkaline method and ammonia method are relatively early processes, and the technical threshold is not high. Therefore, soda industry is a low-threshold industry with resource dependence. Soda is an important basic industrial raw material. Whether it is soda or glass, there is no competitive alternative under the current technical conditions.
Pure alkali has a great influence on raw salt and glass in the industrial chain
The price of coal and natural gas has a great influence on the cost of soda. The original salt production capacity exceeds 110 million tons, and the pure alkali industry has a production capacity of about 30 million tons. If salt consumption is calculated at 1.5 tons, it will consume approximately 4,500 tons of salt, and the influence on the original salt will reach about 40 %. The main downstream of synthetic ammonia is urea. Synthetic ammonia has a certain influence on the soda industry, but soda has a small impact on the ammonia industry. The main uses of coal and natural gas are heating and power generation. Chemical demand accounts for less than 10 %, and soda has little influence on the price of coal. Pure alkali downstream glass occupies about 60 %, one ton of glass requires 0.2 tons of soda, and accounts for 20-30 % of the cost of glass. In the entire industrial chain, coal and natural gas have a relatively large impact on soda and glass, while soda has a large impact on raw salt and glass, and has little effect on synthetic ammonia. At the same time, synthetic ammonia has little effect on soda.
Increased concentration of alkali in China
The soda industry has passed the previous production capacity, eliminated production capacity, and industrial integration. At present, the concentration of the soda market in China has increased. The market share of the top 4 companies in China is 0.35, and the top 8 companies are 0.54. In the future, due to restrictions on access conditions and continued integration, the concentration of the domestic soda industry is expected to continue to increase. The "Pure Alkali Industry Access Conditions" implemented on June 1, 2010 stipulates that the threshold for new soda plants in China is 600,000 tons of soda law and 1.2 million tons of ammonia law. Based on this estimate, the investment in New installations is about 1 billion yuan, and the construction period is about 3 years. The "soda industry access conditions" at the same time requires that the newly built production capacity should actively adopt advanced process technology, select energy-saving and environmentally friendly equipment, and the main components and equipment parameters should be online tested and the DCS(distributed) control system should be adopted.
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